The chaos that ensued with the re-election of President Ahmadinejad is actually nothing new or surprising. We've seen it happen with just about every country that was making the leap from closed-door society to becoming part of the functioning core.
The uprising is a very serious situation, and it will have impacts not only in Iran, but here as well. Penny stock investors, and stock market traders of all kinds, need to be prepared for the fallout, while looking for the trading opportunities.
In Iran, change will be led by a vocal minority (and it was a minority, don't let CNN coverage fool you), usually mainly youth and disenfranchised middle-aged individuals.
However, there can be little question that a significant-enough portion of the Iranian people do not recognize the result of the vote, and are open to the idea of healing relations with the rest of the globe. That idea can not be killed, only driven underground, despite best efforts by the government to kidnap, beat, and/or shoot protestors.
Like most civil wars and fundamental shifts in society, change for the better will come, but only over decades, not months. As the old school hardliners die off, a vacuum in Iranian society will be created, which gets filled with modern and worldly Iranian voices.
The change would come faster if the United States could get involved, but they can't and they won't. Staying out of the Iranian conflict, most Americans don't realize, is potentially saving us in America from a costly political (not military) standoff with China and/or Russia.
As I mentioned to the Peter Leeds fan base on June 16th:
Remember that Iran is within the Soviet + Chinese spheres of influence, and as such you should expect only "posturing" U.S. involvement in the current election uprising.
This has played out just as we had expected, to the degree that Washington insiders have begun openly railing on about the "gentle" and "sheepish" U.S. response to the events in Iran.
American involvement in this game will be played politically, and they'll be very active with that, but will stop short of going beyond stern statements. At most, we'll potentially join a coalition in favor of sanctions against Iran, as long as we have major alliances like France, England, and Japan. However, it will not result in any notable impact, lasting change, or major reversal in the situation.
As long as Russia and China aren't in favor of sanctions against Iran, any such steps from the rest of the international community will be dramatically diluted, and therefore rendered ineffective.
Case in point, watch the minor or non-existent demonstrations when Ahmadinejad is actually sworn in for his new term, which will be some time between July 26th and August 19th.
Don't expect any major spending contracts for defense companies (and therefore their smaller suppliers) as a result of the crisis in Iran. The situation is already being driven underground, and the U.S. isn't going to do anything militarily anyway.
Any increase in share prices of such companies, based on the Iranian situation, should be considered an illusion - meaning that since they aren't based on any operational result to the underlying company, the share prices will give back any such gains. Investors looking for penny stock opportunities in military, security, and defense plays because of the Iranian crisis need to rethink their strategy.
